Vintage Matchup Matrix
Head-to-head win rates for the top 16 archetypes by meta share. Sources: MTGO Challenge playoff brackets, TopDeck.gg paper event swiss rounds, and Gatherling community league rounds.
Window:
Sources: TopDeck.gg, mtgo · Data since Aug 2026 · 147 matches
| ↓ vs → | Raker Shops | Jewel Shops | Dimir Lurrus Control | Paradoxical Outcome | Orzhov Initiative | Mono-White Initiative | Dredge | Blue Tinker | Oath of Druids | Lurrus PO | Lurrus Breach | Underworld Breach | Sphere Shops | Lurrus Vault Key | Doomsday | Grixis Lurrus Control |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raker Shops | 40%5m2-3 (5 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | 20%5m1-4 (5 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | — | ~4m3-1 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~3m1-2 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m0-2 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~3m3-0 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | |
| Jewel Shops | 60%5m3-2 (5 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~4m3-1 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | 67%6m4-2 (6 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | — | ~3m2-1 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | 57%7m4-3 (7 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | — | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | |
| Dimir Lurrus Control | 80%5m4-1 (5 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~4m1-3 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~4m2-2 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 40%5m2-3 (5 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | 0%5m0-5 (5 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~3m3-0 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~4m3-1 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | |
| Paradoxical Outcome | — | — | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | — | — | ~3m1-2 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m0-2 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | — | — | |
| Orzhov Initiative | ~4m1-3 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 33%6m2-4 (6 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~4m2-2 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~2m2-0 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~3m0-3 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m0-2 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 20%5m1-4 (5 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | — | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | |
| Mono-White Initiative | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | — | — | — | — | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Dredge | — | ~3m1-2 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~2m0-2 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~3m1-2 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | — | |
| Blue Tinker | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | — | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | — | ~2m0-2 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | — | ~3m1-2 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | |
| Oath of Druids | ~3m2-1 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 60%5m3-2 (5 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~3m2-1 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~3m3-0 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | — | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m0-2 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m0-2 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~4m3-1 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | |
| Lurrus PO | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 100%5m5-0 (5 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~2m2-0 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m2-0 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~3m2-1 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~2m2-0 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~3m1-2 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | — | |
| Lurrus Breach | ~2m2-0 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~3m0-3 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | — | — | ~2m2-0 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | — | — | ~2m0-2 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | — | |
| Underworld Breach | ~3m0-3 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~4m1-3 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 80%5m4-1 (5 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | — | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m2-0 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~4m1-3 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | — | — | ~2m2-0 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | |
| Sphere Shops | — | — | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | — | — | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Lurrus Vault Key | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 43%7m3-4 (7 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~3m2-1 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m2-0 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | — | — | — | |
| Doomsday | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | — | — | — | — | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | — | ~2m0-2 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | — | — | |
| Grixis Lurrus Control | — | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | — | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | — | ~3m2-1 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Cells show the row archetype's win rate against the column archetype, over the selected window, with the number of matches behind it. Hover any cell for the record.
- High sample (20+ matches)
- Medium sample (8–19 matches)
- Low sample (5–7 matches)
- Insufficient sample (under 5 matches)
Bands are named for the size of the sample, not for confidence: even the strongest band carries a 95% interval around ±20 percentage points. Below 5 matches no win rate is shown at all. How these are calculated