Pauper Matchup Matrix
Head-to-head win rates for the top 16 archetypes by meta share. Sources: MTGO Challenge playoff brackets, TopDeck.gg paper event swiss rounds, and Gatherling community league rounds.
Window:
Sources: Gatherling, TopDeck.gg, mtgo · Data since Aug 2026 · 604 matches
| ↓ vs → | Mono Red Madness | Mono-Blue Delver | Jund Wildfire | Mono Red Rally | Grixis Affinity | Elves | Ephemerate Tron | Gruul Ponza | Bogles | Golgari Gardens | Mono-Blue Faeries | Spy Combo | Dimir Faeries | Dimir Control | Jeskai Ephemerate | Blue Terror |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mono Red Madness | 38%21m8-13 (21 matches) — High sample, 20+ matches | 63%8m5-3 (8 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | 23%13m3-10 (13 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | 44%25m11-14 (25 matches) — High sample, 20+ matches | 73%30m22-8 (30 matches) — High sample, 20+ matches | 41%27m11-16 (27 matches) — High sample, 20+ matches | 50%6m3-3 (6 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | 33%9m3-6 (9 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | 0%8m0-8 (8 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | 48%21m10-11 (21 matches) — High sample, 20+ matches | 80%15m12-3 (15 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | 38%13m5-8 (13 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | 45%11m5-6 (11 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | ~4m2-2 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 60%5m3-2 (5 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | |
| Mono-Blue Delver | 62%21m13-8 (21 matches) — High sample, 20+ matches | 75%8m6-2 (8 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | ~4m3-1 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 40%15m6-9 (15 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | ~3m2-1 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 64%14m9-5 (14 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | ~4m3-1 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~3m1-2 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 20%5m1-4 (5 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | 33%6m2-4 (6 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~3m1-2 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~3m1-2 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 50%10m5-5 (10 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | |
| Jund Wildfire | 38%8m3-5 (8 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | 25%8m2-6 (8 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | ~3m0-3 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 50%6m3-3 (6 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 60%5m3-2 (5 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 60%5m3-2 (5 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | |
| Mono Red Rally | 77%13m10-3 (13 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | ~4m1-3 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~3m3-0 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 56%9m5-4 (9 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | 77%13m10-3 (13 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | 22%9m2-7 (9 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | ~3m2-1 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~3m1-2 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 50%8m4-4 (8 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | 29%7m2-5 (7 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~4m3-1 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~3m2-1 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 67%6m4-2 (6 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | |
| Grixis Affinity | 56%25m14-11 (25 matches) — High sample, 20+ matches | 60%15m9-6 (15 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | 50%6m3-3 (6 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | 44%9m4-5 (9 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | 45%11m5-6 (11 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | 27%11m3-8 (11 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | ~3m0-3 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 60%5m3-2 (5 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~3m2-1 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 55%11m6-5 (11 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 57%7m4-3 (7 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~3m0-3 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~3m2-1 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | |
| Elves | 27%30m8-22 (30 matches) — High sample, 20+ matches | ~3m1-2 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 23%13m3-10 (13 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | 55%11m6-5 (11 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | 46%13m6-7 (13 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | ~2m2-0 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~4m4-0 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 25%8m2-6 (8 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | 75%8m6-2 (8 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | ~4m3-1 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 40%5m2-3 (5 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | 0%5m0-5 (5 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | |
| Ephemerate Tron | 59%27m16-11 (27 matches) — High sample, 20+ matches | 36%14m5-9 (14 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | 40%5m2-3 (5 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | 78%9m7-2 (9 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | 73%11m8-3 (11 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | 54%13m7-6 (13 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | 20%5m1-4 (5 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~3m1-2 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~4m1-3 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 33%6m2-4 (6 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | 14%7m1-6 (7 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~2m0-2 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 33%6m2-4 (6 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~4m1-3 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | |
| Gruul Ponza | 50%6m3-3 (6 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~4m1-3 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~3m1-2 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~3m3-0 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m0-2 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 80%5m4-1 (5 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~4m4-0 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | — | — | — | |
| Bogles | 67%9m6-3 (9 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | ~3m2-1 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~3m2-1 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 40%5m2-3 (5 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~4m0-4 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~3m2-1 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~3m0-3 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~3m0-3 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~4m1-3 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | |
| Golgari Gardens | 100%8m8-0 (8 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | 80%5m4-1 (5 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~3m1-2 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 75%8m6-2 (8 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | ~4m3-1 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~3m3-0 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~3m1-2 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m0-2 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~3m1-2 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | |
| Mono-Blue Faeries | 52%21m11-10 (21 matches) — High sample, 20+ matches | 67%6m4-2 (6 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 50%8m4-4 (8 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | 45%11m5-6 (11 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | 25%8m2-6 (8 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | 67%6m4-2 (6 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~4m0-4 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~3m2-1 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~4m1-3 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m2-0 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | — | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | |
| Spy Combo | 20%15m3-12 (15 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | ~3m2-1 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 40%5m2-3 (5 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | 71%7m5-2 (7 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~4m1-3 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 86%7m6-1 (7 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m2-0 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~4m3-1 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~3m0-3 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~4m3-1 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | |
| Dimir Faeries | 62%13m8-5 (13 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | ~3m2-1 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~4m1-3 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 43%7m3-4 (7 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | 60%5m3-2 (5 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~2m2-0 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~3m3-0 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m0-2 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~3m3-0 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 27%11m3-8 (11 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | — | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | |
| Dimir Control | 55%11m6-5 (11 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | 50%10m5-5 (10 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~3m3-0 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 100%5m5-0 (5 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | 67%6m4-2 (6 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | — | ~4m3-1 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~3m2-1 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~4m1-3 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 73%11m8-3 (11 matches) — Medium sample, 8–19 matches | — | ~4m1-3 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | |
| Jeskai Ephemerate | ~4m2-2 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~3m1-2 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | — | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | — | — | |
| Blue Terror | 40%5m2-3 (5 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | — | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | 33%6m2-4 (6 matches) — Low sample, 5–7 matches | ~3m1-2 (3 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~4m3-1 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~1m0-1 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~1m1-0 (1 match) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — | ~2m1-1 (2 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | ~4m3-1 (4 matches) — Insufficient sample, so no win rate is shown | — |
Cells show the row archetype's win rate against the column archetype, over the selected window, with the number of matches behind it. Hover any cell for the record.
- High sample (20+ matches)
- Medium sample (8–19 matches)
- Low sample (5–7 matches)
- Insufficient sample (under 5 matches)
Bands are named for the size of the sample, not for confidence: even the strongest band carries a 95% interval around ±20 percentage points. Below 5 matches no win rate is shown at all. How these are calculated